Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 21,180
2 Louisiana 20,435
3 New Jersey 20,145
4 Arizona 19,965
5 Rhode Island 16,900
6 Florida 16,779
7 Massachusetts 16,509
8 District of Columbia 16,066
9 Mississippi 14,746
10 Alabama 14,050
11 Delaware 13,991
12 South Carolina 13,876
13 Connecticut 13,478
14 Maryland 13,108
15 Illinois 12,959
16 Georgia 12,506
17 Iowa 12,469
18 Nevada 11,949
19 Texas 11,921
20 Nebraska 11,810
21 Tennessee 11,413
22 Arkansas 11,242
23 Utah 10,769
24 California 10,128
25 North Carolina 9,657
26 Virginia 9,182
27 South Dakota 8,978
28 Indiana 8,705
29 Idaho 8,606
30 Minnesota 8,359
31 Pennsylvania 8,318
32 Michigan 8,259
33 New Mexico 8,210
34 Kansas 8,081
35 Wisconsin 8,029
36 Colorado 7,058
37 North Dakota 6,731
38 Washington 6,559
39 Ohio 6,516
40 Oklahoma 6,427
41 Missouri 5,873
42 Kentucky 5,366
43 New Hampshire 4,595
44 Puerto Rico 3,901
45 Wyoming 3,778
46 Oregon 3,554
47 Alaska 3,297
48 West Virginia 2,869
49 Maine 2,760
50 Montana 2,470
51 Vermont 2,179
52 Hawaii 968

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 514
2 Louisiana 451
3 Alabama 394
4 Nevada 371
5 South Carolina 348
6 Mississippi 342
7 Arizona 308
8 Tennessee 286
9 Texas 280
10 Idaho 279
11 Georgia 267
12 Arkansas 239
13 California 213
14 Utah 203
15 North Carolina 176
16 Kansas 154
17 Iowa 152
18 Alaska 149
19 North Dakota 146
20 Wisconsin 143
21 Puerto Rico 139
22 Missouri 136
23 Kentucky 135
24 Maryland 127
25 Minnesota 123
26 Indiana 121
27 New Mexico 120
28 Washington 119
29 Virginia 114
30 Ohio 110
31 Oklahoma 108
32 District of Columbia 105
33 Delaware 98
34 Oregon 93
35 Illinois 87
36 Nebraska 83
37 Montana 80
38 Colorado 71
39 Wyoming 67
40 West Virginia 66
41 Pennsylvania 60
42 South Dakota 58
43 Michigan 57
44 Massachusetts 44
45 Rhode Island 34
46 New York 30
47 New Hampshire 20
48 Maine 18
49 Connecticut 15
50 New Jersey 15
51 Hawaii 13
52 Vermont 13

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,769
2 New York 1,655
3 Connecticut 1,235
4 Massachusetts 1,223
5 Rhode Island 939
6 District of Columbia 820
7 Louisiana 768
8 Michigan 638
9 Illinois 591
10 Maryland 559
11 Pennsylvania 552
12 Delaware 537
13 Mississippi 456
14 Indiana 419
15 Arizona 383
16 Colorado 305
17 Georgia 293
18 New Hampshire 292
19 Minnesota 281
20 New Mexico 275
21 Ohio 272
22 Alabama 263
23 Iowa 252
24 Virginia 237
25 Florida 236
26 South Carolina 226
27 Nevada 211
28 Washington 199
29 California 196
30 Missouri 189
31 Nebraska 161
32 North Carolina 159
33 Kentucky 155
34 Wisconsin 146
35 Texas 143
36 South Dakota 133
37 North Dakota 127
38 Tennessee 122
39 Arkansas 120
40 Oklahoma 114
41 Kansas 109
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 87
44 Utah 77
45 Idaho 68
46 Oregon 62
47 Puerto Rico 56
48 West Virginia 55
49 Wyoming 41
50 Montana 36
51 Alaska 21
52 Hawaii 16

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 9
2 Florida 4
3 Louisiana 4
4 South Carolina 4
5 Texas 3
6 Mississippi 2
7 New Mexico 2
8 Ohio 2
9 Alabama 1
10 Arkansas 1
11 California 1
12 Georgia 1
13 Indiana 1
14 Iowa 1
15 Maryland 1
16 Massachusetts 1
17 Nevada 1
18 New Jersey 1
19 North Carolina 1
20 North Dakota 1
21 Rhode Island 1
22 Tennessee 1
23 Utah 1
24 Washington 1
25 Alaska 0
26 Colorado 0
27 Connecticut 0
28 Delaware 0
29 District of Columbia 0
30 Hawaii 0
31 Idaho 0
32 Illinois 0
33 Kansas 0
34 Kentucky 0
35 Maine 0
36 Michigan 0
37 Minnesota 0
38 Missouri 0
39 Montana 0
40 Nebraska 0
41 New Hampshire 0
42 New York 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Pennsylvania 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Virginia 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 136,742 1 99
Lake Tennessee 100,057 2 99
Lee Arkansas 97,663 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 93,528 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 89,551 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 25,695 116 96
Richland South Carolina 14,951 384 87
Orange California 9,442 804 74
York South Carolina 8,677 896 71
Pierce Washington 4,721 1546 50

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,399 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
McKinley New Mexico 2,830 5 99
Richland South Carolina 262 660 78
Davidson Tennessee 239 706 77
Orange California 155 964 69
Pierce Washington 133 1072 65
York South Carolina 50 1691 46

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons